Medium-term trade flows between EU27 and EaP6: what trends are visible?
Medium-term trade flows between EU27 and EaP6: what trends are visible?

Author(s): Oleksiy Sekarev
Subject(s): Supranational / Global Economy, Economic policy, International relations/trade
Published by: ECEAP Estonian Center of Eastern Partnership
Summary/Abstract: This paper analyses trade flows between the European Union and its Eastern Partners within the six- year period 2006-2011. It uniformly uses the IMF Direction of Trade statistics 2006-2010, as presented in the database of DG TRADE, while preliminary country trade data for 2011 are addressed to define the overall trends in that year. The use of uniform statistical data is an essential prerequisite to attain coherency of results and circumvent contradictions in mirror statistics, which in specific cases can become substantial in scope. The main objective of the paper is to see if any distinct trends can be identified to characterise trade developments between the EU and EaP regions in an environment, where the parties seek, as a rule, deep and comprehensive free trade agreements (DCFTA). To reach this objective, the paper rests on a two-fold approach. Firstly, it examines consolidated data for the region’s trade with the EU, in what concerns trade dynamics and comparisons of EaP6 trade with the EU27 and with the world. Secondly, it sheds light at EaP trade with the EU country by country in a broader trade policy context, including, where appropriate, the state of DCFTA negotiations.

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