Ruská válka v Gruzii: Jak dál?
Russian war in Georgia: where do we go from here?

Author(s): Michal Thim, Luboš Veselý, Magdalena Fričová
Subject(s): Security and defense, Post-Communist Transformation, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: AMO – Asociace pro mezinárodní otázky
Keywords: Georgian-Russian war; South Ossetia; Abkhazia
Summary/Abstract: The aim of this study is to formulate recommendations for the European Union (EU) action following the extraordinary meeting of the EU Council of Ministers on 13 August 2008 in connection with Georgia's actions in the breakaway region of South Ossetia and the subsequent actions of the Russian Federation (RF), which escalated into a regular Georgian-Russian war. Georgia's miscalculation in its actions towards South Ossetia was extremely irresponsible, and it is also necessary to verify reports of violence against the civilian population and, if these reports are confirmed, insist on their investigation. However, Russia's subsequent actions must be clearly classified as aggression against Georgia. Russia can no longer fulfill the role of guarantor and mediator in the resolution of the conflicts in South Ossetia and Abkhazia, because it has clearly taken a side in the conflict. The recommendations are aimed at a fundamentally more active role for the EU in resolving both conflicts, in particular through a formal position in changed negotiation formats and participation in international peacekeeping forces that should replace the existing ones. This change is necessary not only because Russia's actions have discredited itself as a mediator, but also because the assumption that the dormant conflicts in the South Caucasus could quickly escalate into a regional conflict has been confirmed. The study also includes hypothetical scenarios for further developments.

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