Modelowanie dzietności: adaptacja modelu Lee-Cartera
Modelling fertility: Lee-Carter model adaptation
Author(s): Wojciech Otto, Jagoda Niemczynowicz
Subject(s): Economy
Published by: Wydawnictwa Uniwersytetu Warszawskiego
Keywords: cross-sectional gross reproduction rate; cohort gross reproduction rate; childlessness; Lee-Carter model; Renshaw-Haberman model
Summary/Abstract: We present modified Lee–Carter models for modelling fertility. We analyse Polish Central Statistical Office data on total births by age of mothers in Poland from 1971 to 2018 and the age of mothers at the moment of giving birth to the first child in Poland from 1971 to 2017. Although Lee-Carter model was designed for mortality modelling and forecasting, we adapt it to highlight a direct relationship between the model parameters and the evolution of gross reproduction rate and the average age of giving birth to the first child, both in cross-sectional and cohort view.
Book: Modele w ekonomii. Księga jubileuszowa Profesora Wojciecha Maciejewskiego
- Page Range: 97-129
- Page Count: 33
- Publication Year: 2020
- Language: English, Polish
- Content File-PDF