The yield curve as a predictor of economic activity – the case of the Visegrad group Cover Image

The yield curve as a predictor of economic activity – the case of the Visegrad group
The yield curve as a predictor of economic activity – the case of the Visegrad group

Author(s): Veronika Kajurová, Jana Hvozdenská
Subject(s): National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Economic policy, Comparative politics
Published by: Masarykova univerzita
Keywords: yield curve; slope; Visegrad; GDP; spread;
Summary/Abstract: In this paper we study the ability of the yield curve to predict GDP activity in four countries of the Visegrad group – Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland and Hungary. The dataset contains the spread between 10-year and 3-month sovereign bonds and real GDP of the countries mentioned above between the years 2002 and 2012.