Значимост на демографските тенденции за фискалната устойчивост
The Significance of Demographic Trends for Fiscal Sustainability

Author(s): Velichka Nikolova, Angel Angelov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Social Sciences, Economy, National Economy, Sociology, Demography and human biology, Fiscal Politics / Budgeting, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: fiscal sustainability; government debt; ageing
Summary/Abstract: This report focuses on a key factor affecting fiscal sustainability, namely demographic trends, examined through the lens of population ageing, migration and declining birth rates. Demographic changes pose a significant challenge to the management of public finances, as they generate increasing pressure on government expenditures and, consequently, on the long-term stability of public budgets. The study conducts a comparative analysis between Bulgaria and Romania in order to highlight the common demographic trends faced by both countries, as well as to emphasize the resulting risks to fiscal sustainability. These risks are manifested in higher growth rates of public expenditure, persistent budget deficits, rising levels of government debt and a slowdown in economic growth.

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