Модел на когнитивен риск (CRF) като нова рамка за разбиране на пазарното поведение и интелектуалната нестабилност
Cognitive Risk Model (CRF) as a New Framework for Understanding Market Behavior and Intellectual Instability

Author(s): Teodor Minchev
Subject(s): Economy, Business Economy / Management, Financial Markets, ICT Information and Communications Technologies
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: Cognitive Risk; Behavioral Finance; Artificial Intelligence; Market Psychology; ALEX Cognitive System
Summary/Abstract: This paper introduces the Cognitive Risk Function (CRF) – a conceptual framework that redefines financial risk as the volatility of understanding rather than the volatility of prices. The model quantifies how far perception diverges from objective market reality, using information-theoretic metrics such as the Kullback–Leibler divergence. Developed jointly with ALEX508, an experimental cognitive system for financial modeling, CRF is implemented through real-time analysis of sentiment embeddings, macro data, and behavioral indicators. Empirical results show that CRF can serve as a leading indicator of cognitive stress in market systems and a foundation for a new discipline – Cognitive Finance.

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