Брутната добавена стойност и бюджетните приходи от ДДС в България: иконометричен анализ за периода 2015-2024 г.
Gross Value Added and Budget Revenues from VAT in Bulgaria: an Econometric Analysis for the Period 2015- 2024

Author(s): Diman Karanfilov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, National Economy, Economic policy, Public Finances
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: gross value added; VAT; econometric analysis; tax efficiency; fiscal policy of Bulgaria
Summary/Abstract: This report examines the relationship between gross value added and budget revenues from value added tax in Bulgaria for the period 2015-2024 by applying econometric methods. The main objective of the study is to establish the degree and nature of the influence of the tax base on the formation of VAT revenues in the state budget and, in parallel, assess the effectiveness of the tax system. Correlation and regression analysis methods are applied. The results demonstrate an extremely strong positive correlation between the two variables with the presence of a stable economic dependence with a conclusion about an established basis for forecasting budget revenues. The average effective tax rate of 10.40% indicates stable VAT collection relative to the created value added, with slight variations due to economic and tax factors. The study has practical value for fiscal planning and assessment of tax policy.

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