Трансферите в бюджета на ЕС: динамика и нетни ефекти за страните-членки
Transfers in the EU Budget: Dynamics and Net Effects for Member States

Author(s): Tsvetan Pavlov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, Economic policy, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, Public Finances
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: EU budget; net transfers; economic growth; European integration
Summary/Abstract: Despite transparency and free access to data, there is polarization in public opinion regarding the direct financial effects of EU budget distribution. The aim of the report is to identify trends in net transfers from the EU and their effects on the economic growth of member states, measured by gross national income (GNI). The analysis covers the period 2000-2023. The results of a fixed-effects panel regression, configured with two factors: share of investment in GDP and net transfers (including their first lag), reveal a dual effect of transfers on growth. In the same year, they act countercyclically as a shock stabilizer (coefficient -3.43), and with a one-year lag, they significantly accelerate economic growth (coefficient 2.33). These results indicate that the EU budget is a successful mechanism for convergence and stimulating growth. The main conclusion from the model is that all Member States, including net donors, derive significant economic benefits from the budget, even when ignoring other positives from integration such as the Single Market. This demonstrates the universal effectiveness of European funds, with Bulgaria being among the main beneficiaries.

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