Емпиричен анализ на връзката между валутния курс щатски долар/евро, цените на златото и промените в митническата политика на САЩ
Empirical Analysis of the Relationship between the USD/EUR Exchange Rate, Gold Prices, and U.S. Customs Policy Changes

Author(s): Elena Stavrova, Olga Petkova-Mihaylova, Georgi Nikolov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, Economic policy, Financial Markets
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: exchange rate; tariffs, global instability; US tariff policy
Summary/Abstract: The study investigates the interrelationship between the USD/EUR exchange rate, Gold prices, and changes in U.S. customs policy, applying econometric methods to identify causal and structural dependencies among these key macroeconomic indicators. The primary objective is to assess how shifts in U.S. trade and tariff regulations influence the strength of the U.S. dollar relative to the euro and the behavior of gold as a global reserve asset. The research employs time-series data covering the period 2000–2025, sourced from international financial databases such as the ECB, FRED, and the World Gold Council. Using multiple regression analysis and the Granger causality test, the study evaluates both short-term and long-term linkages among the selected variables. Preliminary assumptions suggest that stricter customs policies and higher tariffs may lead to a temporary appreciation of the U.S. dollar, while increasing global uncertainty and gold demand. The empirical results are expected to contribute to a deeper understanding of the dynamic interaction between monetary, trade policy instruments, and commodity markets, offering insights relevant to policymakers, investors, and international economists. The novelty of the research lies in trade policy variables into the econometric modelling of exchange rate and gold price dynamics.

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