Ефектът на COVID-19 кризата върху строителния сектор
The Impact of the COVID-19 Crisis on The Construction Sector

Author(s): Vasil Nikolchev
Subject(s): Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: COVID-19; construction; infrastructure; interest rates; supply chains
Summary/Abstract: This report analyzes the impact of the COVID-19 crisis on the construction sector over the period 2019–2022, focusing on differences between building construction and civil engineering. The main research hypothesis is that the pandemic had the strongest negative effect on the private segment of building construction (around a 10–11% decline), while civil engineering/infrastructure construction demonstrated relative resilience (approximately a 1.5% decline) due to the dominant role of public financing and EU-funded programs. The report also considers the pre-crisis growth phase (2015–2019) and the subsequent downturn (2020–2021), driven by lockdowns, disruptions in supply chains, and labor shortages, as well as broader macroeconomic developments (e.g., GDP declines in the EU and Bulgaria). Methodologically, the study combines comparative, statistical, and empirical analysis based on secondary data from Eurostat, the European Commission, the ECB, the Bulgarian National Bank, the Bulgarian Construction Chamber, and other institutional sources. Low mortgage interest rates are highlighted as a key “shock absorber,” partly mitigating the negative impact on residential construction.

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