THE BLACK SEA REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF FOUR YEARS OF WAR IN UKRAINE. THE GAME OF CHESS BETWEEN NATO, EU, RUSSIA, AND OTHER RELEVANT ACTORS
THE BLACK SEA REGION IN THE CONTEXT OF FOUR YEARS OF WAR IN UKRAINE. THE GAME OF CHESS BETWEEN NATO, EU, RUSSIA, AND OTHER RELEVANT ACTORS

Author(s): Daniela Lică, Ana-Maria FLOREA
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Social Sciences, Security and defense, Military policy, Peace and Conflict Studies
Published by: Carol I National Defence University Publishing House
Keywords: Black Sea Region (BSR); diplomacy during wartime; defence strategy; hybrid warfare; NATO-EU strategic cooperation; strategic engagement.
Summary/Abstract: The paper examines aspects related to the Black Sea Region (BSR) security environment in the context of four years of ongoing conflict in Ukraine, including most recent advances up to March 2026. The region is seen as a strategic chessboard shaped by intensifying great-power rivalry, divergent dynamics within the Alliance and the EU and the expanding use of hybrid threats. The paper aims to discuss the posture of concerned actors on the chessboard as it results from strategic documents and position statements that make up StratCom; the relation among them is also approached in the light of recent developments as a result of the regime change in the USA, for instance. And last but not least, narrative coherence is approached, bringing into attention issues such as coordination and synchronisation. All these are seen as key indicators of diplomacy during wartime. Using offensive Realism and alliance theories, as well as qualitative analysis of strategic documents, defence procurement data, and mass-media articles presenting key StratCom messages, the study argues that NATO and the EU operate as complementary but asymmetrical players whose sometimes divergent strategies determine the operational landscape and regional balance of power. Particular attention is given to the role of Romania, positioned as a frontier country for NATO’s Eastern Flank. Written from the perspective of a NATO and EU member, the paper concludes that a resolution of the conflict and the achievement of effective stability require coherent multi-domain responses, alongside enhanced cooperation and aligned Euro-Atlantic strategic planning and actions.

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