Анализ на връзката между очакваната и реалната безработица в България
Analysis of the Relationship between Expected and Actual Unemployment in Bulgaria

Author(s): Todor Borisov
Subject(s): Economy, National Economy, Human Resources in Economy, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: unemployment; expectations; ARDL; ARIMAX; cointegration; Granger
Summary/Abstract: This study examines the relationship between expected and actual unemployment in Bulgaria over the period 2003 – 2025, assessing the role of public expectations in the dynamics of the labor market. Data on expectations are sourced from the National Statistical Institute’s „Consumer Survey.“ After seasonal adjustment, ARDL, ARIMAX and VAR models are applied, alongside Johansen cointegration tests and Granger causality analysis. The results indicate that expectations exert a statistically significant and leading influence on actual unemployment, highlighting their predictive and behavioral relevance for economic policy.

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