Scenarios for the Development of Agricultural Holdings in Areas Facing Natural Constraints Until 2030
Scenarios for the Development of Agricultural Holdings in Areas Facing Natural Constraints Until 2030

Author(s): Bozhura Fidanska
Subject(s): Economy, Agriculture
Published by: Институт за икономически изследвания при Българска академия на науките
Summary/Abstract: In recent decades, especially since the second half of the twentieth century, farms in mountainous areas have undergone a process of socio-economic and environmental transformations as a result of accelerated integration into national and international social-economic systems. Consequently, these farms have had to adapt to broader socio-economic dynamics, including the full integration of rural economies into a globalised market economy; expansion and deployment of communication technologies; gradual protection of the environment; an increasing revision of agricultural policy support; emergence of new requirements and interests for rural areas such as tourism, landscape maintenance, protection of biodiversity and cultural heritage, and growth of an economy based on the provision of diverse services. This study aims to design, using statistical data from 2007 to 2020, a multi-scenario simulation framework for the development of farms in mountain areas. It applies a widely recognised scenario-based methodological approach. The study establishes the logical relationship between the functioning of production systems in mountain regions and the sustainable development of agricultural holdings in these areas. Three scenarios are constructed: a baseline, a moderate, and a pessimistic scenario. The results highlight the significant challenges confronting farms in mountainous regions while also revealing opportunities to adapt development policies and strategies. Targeted measures aimed at stimulating sustainable practices, diversifying activities, and improving infrastructure can mitigate negative trends and enhance the long-term viability of farms in these territories.

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