The Effect of EU Plastic Waste Trade Regulations on Exports to Non-OECD Countries
The Effect of EU Plastic Waste Trade Regulations on Exports to Non-OECD Countries

Author(s): Galina Zaharieva
Subject(s): Economy, National Economy, Business Economy / Management
Published by: Институт за икономически изследвания при Българска академия на науките
Summary/Abstract: This article examines the impact of the 2019 amendments to the Basel Convention and Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2020/2174 on exports of plastic waste from the European Union to non-OECD countries. To assess the effects, an intervention analysis using interrupted time series with a seasonal ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,0,1)_12 model with three exogenous predictors: time, intervention, and time since intervention is applied. The study is based on monthly data for the period 2018-2023 extracted from the UN Comtrade database for HS code 3915: Waste, parings and scrap of plastics. The results show that although the regulation initially led to a decline in exports, a positive trend emerged after the intervention, leading to a significant cumulative positive effect by the end of the observation period. The findings suggest a successful adaptation by exporters to the new regulatory framework.

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