Impact of the U.S. Import Tariffs on Bulgaria’s Economy
Impact of the U.S. Import Tariffs on Bulgaria’s Economy

Author(s): Daniela Bobeva-Filipova, Emil Panusheff, Nedialko Nestorov, Atanas V. Pavlov
Subject(s): Economy, Supranational / Global Economy
Published by: Институт за икономически изследвания при Българска академия на науките
Summary/Abstract: This paper evaluates the direct and indirect effects of the U.S. import tariffs introduced in August 2025 on the Bulgaria’s economy. Using elasticity-based models and global value chain analysis, the evaluation estimates a total export loss of €626.9 million, equal to 1.46% of Bulgaria’s goods exports, and a projected GDP decline of 0.36%. While short-term impacts are measurable, long-term outcomes will depend on U.S. market adjustments and the ability of Bulgarian exporters to adapt to new competitive conditions. The results highlight the need for targeted measures, policies and adaptive strategies to mitigate external shocks in the current global trade environment.

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