Exporting Conflict? The European Union’s Arms Trade and Its Effects on Forced Migration
Exporting Conflict? The European Union’s Arms Trade and Its Effects on Forced Migration

Author(s): Vasil Pavlov
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, Civil Society, Economic policy, International relations/trade, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development, Asylum, Refugees, Migration as Policy-fields
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: defense expenditure; arms trade; forced migration; asylum seekers; military conflicts
Summary/Abstract: This paper aims to critically investigate whether the export of arms produced within the EU might contribute to the very instability that drives forced migration. Through a quantitative, data-driven approach, this study seeks to analyze the main destinations and monetary value of EU-issued arms export licenses based on the European COARM data, alongside demographic and geographic data, extracted from Eurostat on asylum seekers arriving in the EU between 2015 and 2023. The research question is whether EU arms trade policies may, even unintentionally, be acting as a catalyst for displacement, thereby generating humanitarian consequences that reverberate back into Europe’s own borders.

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