Schedule and Cost Project Risk Assessment Using Simulation Modeling
Schedule and Cost Project Risk Assessment Using Simulation Modeling

Author(s): Tsvetan Tsvetkov
Subject(s): Social Sciences, Economy, Business Economy / Management, Sociology, Methodology and research technology, ICT Information and Communications Technologies
Published by: Университет за национално и световно стопанство (УНСС)
Keywords: Project risk; Schedule risk; Cost risk; Monte Carlo simulation
Summary/Abstract: This paper is dedicated to an approach for assessing project schedule and cost risks, which uses the methodology of simulation modelling. A problem identification was made, examining the issues in this area. The main identified issue is that the current environment in which projects are developed and implemented is complex and highly dynamic. It is increasingly difficult for managers to rely on their own intellect, experience and intuition to justify their decisions in project management. It is necessary to use contemporary methods with a quantitative orientation. An analysis of the literary sources in the areas necessary to clarify the indicated approach is presented: project management, project risk management, PERT/CPM network models, and the features of simulation modelling. For the needs of this paper, a hypothetical project was developed, based on which a simulation model for cost and time risk analysis was created. The model was run with 5 000 iterations, and the results obtained were analysed. Based on this, a series of conclusions have been formulated.

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