EKONOMSKE I DEMOGRAFSKE POSLEDICE RATOVA DEVEDESETIH: KOMPARATIVNA ANALIZA PRIMERA SLOVENIJE, SRBIJE I BOSNE I HERCEGOVINE
ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC CONSEQUENCES OF THE WARS OF THE 1990S: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF THE CASES OF SLOVENIA, SERBIA AND BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA

Author(s): Ognjen Tomić
Subject(s): Economy, Economic history, Wars in Jugoslavia
Published by: Građanske inicijative
Keywords: Yugoslavia; Yugoslav wars; effects of war; economic history; inequality; Serbia; Slovenia; Bosnia and Herzegovina
Summary/Abstract: Slovenia, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina have had a different development path since the break-up of Yugoslavia. While Slovenia avoided significant participation in the wars that followed the disappearance of the old state, Serbia was directly or indirectly involved in all these wars, and Bosnia and Herzegovina suffered enormous material destruction on its territory in the period 1991-1995. Data on population, Gross Domestic Product and Gross Domestic Product per capita clearly show the devastating impact of the wars on the economies of Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina. While between 1989. and 1995, Serbia’s economy shrank about twice from 47.6 billion in 1989 to 21.2 billion in 1995, Bosnia’s economy shrank from 17 billion to just 2.9 billion - or almost six times. The Serbian economy did not reach the level of 1989 in 2020, while the Bosnian economy barely reached that level. In terms of demographic losses, Bosnia and Herzegovina suffered the greatest losses in the period up to 1995, when it lost about 20% of its population compared to 1991. Serbia suffered the greatest losses after the Kosovo war in 1999 - in the period 1995-2001, the country’s population decreased by about 400,000 people. Most of the direct demographic losses occurred on the territory of Kosovo and Metohija. The consequences of the war can be traced to the negative population trends of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Serbia until 2020, given that the population decline was greater than the pessimistic model based on data from 1991. In addition to economic and demographic collapse, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina have had also an increase in population inequality, which has led to an even greater decline in living standards compared to the period of Yugoslavia. Avoiding the devastation of war during the 1990s, Slovenia managed to more than double its GDP from 1989. to 2020, maintain a relatively stable population level, and make the gradual transition from socialism to capitalism, while maintaining low levels of inequality, welfare institutions and living standards of the average residents. This country largely followed the trends predicted by models based on 1991 data, which may to some extent provide a picture of the hypothetical development of other Yugoslav republics if there weren’t the effects of the wars that broke in 1991.

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