CONCLUSION
CONCLUSION

Author(s): Author Not Specified
Subject(s): Politics, International relations/trade, Globalization, Russian Aggression against Ukraine
Published by: PISM Polski Instytut Spraw Międzynarodowych
Keywords: Russia; Invasion; Ukraine; Global Order; Conclusion;
Summary/Abstract: The Russian invasion of Ukraine should indeed be considered a transformative moment for the international order, as the authors of essays collected in this report demonstrate. The war has brought fundamental changes to NATO and the EU, set out new perspectives on Russia and Ukraine, transformed thinking about Europe’s future security architecture and energy policy, and sealed the changes that have been taking place for some time in the policies of China and the countries of the Global South. If we reject extremely unlikely scenarios, which might change the course of the war (like the use of nuclear weapons by Russia), the new international order that will emerge when the guns go silent in Ukraine will, however, involve a significant element of continuity: some well-established strategic concepts and assumptions will continue to inform the policies of key actors. The United States will continue to consider China, not Russia, as its most dangerous strategic rival and the one international actor that can undermine America’s global position in the long run. Germany, if it ever delivers on its historic foreign policy shift, will not abandon one of the foundational stones of its strategic culture, which is to limit the risk of confrontation with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia will continue to be a fairly attractive partner for a relatively large group of countries in the Global South willing to cooperate with Moscow and indifferent to Western calls regarding sanctions or containing Russian disinformation and propaganda.

• Details
• Contents