FRIENDS OR FOES? EXTERNAL ACTORS AND THE EU’S WESTERN BALKANS POLICY
FRIENDS OR FOES? EXTERNAL ACTORS AND THE EU’S WESTERN BALKANS POLICY

Author(s): Dimitar Bechev, Srđan Cvijić
Subject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Politics, International relations/trade, EU-Approach / EU-Accession / EU-Development
Published by: BCBP Beogradski centar za bezbednosnu politiku
Keywords: EU; Foreign Influence; Foreign Policy;
Summary/Abstract: This publication assesses how six external actors - Russia, China, Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Israel, and Azerbaijan - engage with the Western Balkans (WB) and how such engagement affects the European Union (EU) enlargement process. The analysis is anchored in: (1) Desk research on foreign influence and security dynamics in the WB; (2) 27 structured expert interviews conducted in November–December 2025 using a standard questionnaire; and (3) targeted open-source research to verify interview claims and fine-tune the empirical findings where necessary. The main output of the research is the Threatometer: three comparable tables rating each actor across three criteria: (i) the prominence of the EU in that actor’s policy vis-à-vis the WB; (ii) the degree to which the actor poses a threat to the European Project; and (iii) the degree of overlap between that actor’s policy and the EU’s agenda in the WB.

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