POLITICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CRISIS IN SERBIA: POSSIBLE SCENARIOS (NOVEMBER 2025 – JUNE 2026)
POLITICAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CRISIS IN SERBIA: POSSIBLE SCENARIOS (NOVEMBER 2025 – JUNE 2026)

Author(s): Igor Bandović, Srđan Cvijić, Marko Drajić, Jelena Pejić Nikić, Predrag Petrović, Vuk Vuksanović
Subject(s): Politics, Governance, Corruption - Transparency - Anti-Corruption
Published by: BCBP Beogradski centar za bezbednosnu politiku
Keywords: Serbia political crisis; Mass protests; Authoritarian consolidation; EU mediation; Student movement; State repression; Regime transition
Summary/Abstract: The BCSP policy brief “Political and Institutional Crisis in Serbia: Possible Scenarios (November 2025 – June 2026)” analyses the country’s deepest political and institutional turmoil in over a decade, rooted in systemic corruption, impunity and the erosion of public trust following the Novi Sad tragedy. It examines the rise of a decentralised civic and student movement as the main force for democratic change, contrasted with the regime’s repressive use of state institutions to maintain power. The international community’s divided stance – between stability and democratic principles – further shapes the crisis trajectory. The paper outlines four potential scenarios: controlled repression and authoritarian consolidation; EU-mediated negotiated transition; escalation into chaos and possible governance collapse; or early elections with uncertain outcomes. Ultimately, it warns that Serbia’s future hinges on the balance of domestic resistance and international engagement.

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