Intelligence and Strategic Communication
Intelligence and Strategic Communication

Author(s): Niklas Nilsson
Subject(s): Communication studies, Security and defense, Politics and communication, Peace and Conflict Studies, Russian Aggression against Ukraine
Published by: NATO Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence
Keywords: Intelligence; Strategic Communication; StratCom; government;
Summary/Abstract: The use of intelligence for strategic communication (StratCom) involves the deliberate release of intelligence to shape perceptions, deter adversaries, attribute responsibility, foster cohesion, and reinforce credibility. Recent global developments - especially Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine - have accelerated this practice, highlighting the role of intelligence in StratCom. The utilisation of intelligence in government communication is not new, as demonstrated by pivotal historical disclosures. Over the last decade, communication from European and U.S. security services has become consistently more open regarding threats posed by foreign adversaries. However, the unprecedented scale of declassified strategic warning intelligence released by the U.S. and UK in the run-up to the 2022 invasion of Ukraine reflects a shifting balance, suggesting that policymakers increasingly perceive the value of using intelligence for StratCom-purposes to outweigh the potential risks attached to doing so. These benefits include deterring hostile actions by exposing adversary intentions and planning, promoting a unified understanding of threats among allies, and bolstering the credibility of government communication. Moreover, the growing open-source intelligence (OSINT) community has reshaped the information environment by producing timely, credible insights once exclusive to state agencies. The convergence between state-produced intelligence and publicly available information serves to reinforce strategic narratives while mitigating the risks of exposing sensitive information. Nevertheless, the use of intelligence in StratCom poses serious challenges. The exposure of knowledge and capabilities may present risks to sources and methods, and trigger adaptation and countermeasures among adversaries. Publicly disseminated intelligence that turns out to be inaccurate or exaggerated undercuts credibility. Disclosures can also delimit political and diplomatic options for a government, while the perceived utility of intelligence for StratCom holds inherent risks of politicisation. The value of intelligence rests on both its secrecy and its perceived accuracy. States must balance operational security against StratCom imperatives, applying a principled approach weighing the objectives and intended effects of each disclosure against short and long-term risks to the integrity of intelligence agencies, ensuring that openness serves national interests without eroding core intelligence functions.

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