Wpływ zmian demograficznych na wzorce konsumpcji gospodarstw domowych w Polsce
Impact of demographic changes on household consumption patterns in Poland

Author(s): Katarzyna Walerysiak-Grzechowska
Subject(s): Economy, Financial Markets
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Łódzkiego
Keywords: microsimulations; complete demand model; PADS; demand forecasts; determinants of demand; consumption patterns
Summary/Abstract: The aim of the monograph is to estimate and assess the long-term effects of changes in the state and structure of the population on consumer demand. The study enriches the previous achievements in the field of consumption analysis by building a connection between data characterizing consumption behavior at the household level and consumption at the meso- and macroeconomic level. In order to achieve the intended result, an interdisciplinary microsimulation model was built describing demographic and economic phenomena. The model consists of three blocks: demographic, households and consumption from personal income of the population. The demographic block takes into account the most important parameters allowing for the construction of scenarios, which are used to determine the number and structure of the population. In the household block, socio-demographic (and economic) variables are transformed into consumption patterns of different types of households. The consumption from personal income block uses consumption patterns modeled using the complete PADS demand model to determine the size of consumption for 62 categories in the COICOP classification and (as a result of their aggregation) consumption from total personal income. The results of the cooperation of these blocks were presented in the form of simulations of future states and structures of household consumption in Poland until 2075, based on scenarios of assumptions regarding the shape of the population size and structure, income dynamics and price relations.

• Details
• Contents