Ekonomik büyümenin konut fiyatları üzerindeki asimetrik etkisi: NARDL uygulaması
Asymmetric Effect of Economic Growth on Housing Prices: NARDL Application

Summary/Abstract: The study explores the asymmetric effects of economic growth on the housing market in Turkey. In order to examine the effects of declines as well as the increases in economic growth NARDL (Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model is preferred. In the study it was studied with monthly data for the period 2010M1-2019M4. In the model, the house price index, which reflects the change in house prices, is the dependent variable, while the industrial production index, which is considered the leading indicator of economic growth and which is the proxy variable in the study, is used as the independent variable. Estimation findings reveal that while the industrial production index has increased, housing prices have also increased and the industrial production index has been decreasing, while housing prices have also declined. According to this, it was found that in line with the theory of economics, in times of economic growth, housing prices rose and in times of economic growth declined and / or slowed down, housing prices decreased. The effect of the increase in industrial production on raising house prices is greater than the effect of the decrease in industrial production on lowering house prices, and this effect lasts about seven months. The findings show that the decrease in industrial production and the effect of lowering house prices continued for six months.

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