How Oil Prices Drive Inflation in Turkish Economy: Two Different Channels
How Oil Prices Drive Inflation in Turkish Economy: Two Different Channels
Author(s): Bilgin Bari, Zafer AdalıSubject(s): National Economy, Energy and Environmental Studies, Evaluation research, Transformation Period (1990 - 2010), Present Times (2010 - today)
Published by: Ahmet Arif Eren
Keywords: Oil Price; Gasoline Price; Inflation; Nonlinear ARDL Model;
Summary/Abstract: This study analyzes the impact of changes in oil prices on consumer inflation in Turkey. We compare the effects of the changes in crude oil and gasoline prices on the consumer prices. These effects differ symmetrically and asymmetrically for the period 2009:01-2020:04. For this purpose, inflationary effects are estimated using linear and nonlinear ARDL models. According to the findings, changes in both oil and fuel prices have asymmetric effects on inflation in the short run. Both models explain the changes in consumer inflation with the increases in oil prices in the long run. The result indicates that the decreases in oil prices are not taken into account in pricing decisions.
Journal: Fiscaoeconomia
- Issue Year: 4/2020
- Issue No: 3
- Page Range: 705-721
- Page Count: 17
- Language: English