Bulgarian Economy and Banking as of Mid–2019: Results and Outlook
Bulgarian Economy and Banking as of Mid–2019: Results and Outlook

Summary/Abstract: The global economic environment is becoming increasingly turbulent and risky – trade wars, trade sanctions, military conflicts, Brexit, over-indebtedness, competing cheap money policies, etc. For an EU peripheral economy and banking sector like the Bulgarian ones, this environment contains many risks and benefits. Thus, the results for the half-year for both economy and banking sector proved to be more favorable than expected before. What are the reasons and what should we expect for the entire 2019? This paper makes a descriptive analysis of the core macroeconomic indicator: the gross domestic product, and examines the contribution of its components on the supply and demand side to the economic growth during the first half of the year. Additionally the dynamics of further key macroeconomic indicators (inflation and unemployment) are briefly outlined. In a parallel line the banking sector is more deeply addressed due to it’s the crucial role in the structure of thecontemporary economy. Extrapolating the influence of the factors revealed in the retrospective analysis and taking into account the expectations of the managers (PMI) in the surveys of the National Statistical Institute the article gives outlook for the development of the economy and the banking sector by the end of the year.

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