Analysis of the tone of discussions at the decision-making meetings of the Monetary Policy Council Cover Image

Analiza wydźwięku dyskusji na posiedzeniach decyzyjnych Rady Polityki Pieniężnej
Analysis of the tone of discussions at the decision-making meetings of the Monetary Policy Council

Author(s): Wirginia Doryń
Subject(s): Business Economy / Management
Published by: Główny Urząd Statystyczny
Keywords: monetary policy; central banks’ communication; sentiment analysis

Summary/Abstract: Communiqués of central bank are an important complement to the monetary policy instruments. The aim of the article is to present the results of the quantitative study of the tone of official communiqués in English of the National Bank of Poland, which are descriptions of discussions at the decision-making meetings of the Monetary Policy Council published in the years 2007—2017. The list of words developed by Bennani and Neuenkirch (2017) was used to evaluate the tone. Determined measures of tone were compared with economic indicators. It was found that the sentiment of NBP’s communiqués quite strongly correlates with the survey measures of the business tendency and to a lesser extent with the index of sold production of industry, having a leading nature of 2 months in relation to these indicators. The obtained results also indicate a significant relationship between the tone of the NBP’s statements and the business tendency in Germany, the euro area countries and the European Union.

  • Issue Year: 63/2018
  • Issue No: 07
  • Page Range: 72-85
  • Page Count: 14
  • Language: Polish