HORIZONS OF THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT DECADE FOR A POSSIBLE MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY
HORIZONS OF THE SECURITY ENVIRONMENT IN THE NEXT DECADE FOR A POSSIBLE MANAGEMENT OF UNCERTAINTY

Summary/Abstract: The main effort of the world in the next decade of the 21st century has to be focused on creating premises for a possible management of uncertainty. There are so many determinants that the security environment is being reconfigured on coordinates which are difficult to determine. The last Europe-Asia Summit in Bruxelles, from 4th-5th of October 2010, reaffirms the strategic partnership between the two continents on the basis of an equal partnership, of mutual respect and benefits, and the current European leaders need very good relations with the Asian countries. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is reformed and it draws a new world order. The policy of the Russian Federation towards the West represents a tactical change, with strategic value and is about to gain a significant role in the European security and the misunderstandings which followed NATO Summit in Lisbon (19th-20th of November 2010) regarding the antimissile shield may trigger a new arms race and counteractions from the Russian Federation. New risks may also emerge from the tergiversation of ratifying the New START Treaty. The fact that the gravity center of the world policy has moved in the Pacific and Indian Oceans creates, in its turn, the premises of passing from the “single-pole moment” to a multipolar system in which there would be several great powers and numerous regional power centers. After twenty years since the Chart of Paris for a new Europe, the idea of the need for a security based on transparency and mutual trust, although was reconfirmed within the OSCE summit in Astana, continues to be an aspiration as conflict resolution cannot be made by this generation of political decision-makers. Even more, within this framework, Russia’s singularization and the contradictory declarations on the principles agreed at the NATO summit in Lisbon threat the “reset” of the relations with the West and a new period of tensions and ignoring of international rules.

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