INFORMATION AND STRATEGIC SURPRISE: PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF WEAK SIGNALS
INFORMATION AND STRATEGIC SURPRISE: PROSPECTIVE ANALYSIS OF WEAK SIGNALS

Summary/Abstract: The issue of unforeseen events, whose manifestation produce major changes at strategic level, surprising a strategic actor or more by another actor who, thereby, obtains a major advantage, is studied and known as “strategic surprise”. Under certain conditions, these events can become “strategic ruptures”. The role of information communities becomes thus diversified, with the increasing of the uncertainty, specific of the current period. The focus is not only on major trends, but also on “weak signals”, that can foreshadow the events of low intensity and importance at present, but may produce major effects later on. The role of this type of signals that may predict events, such as “wild cards”, is becoming more topical for foresight researchers, in the long-term analysis of strategic level.

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