TÜRKİYE’NİN DIŞ TİCARET HACMİNİN ÇEKİM MODELİ İLE TAHMİNİ
THE ESTIMATION OF TURKEY'S FOREIGN TRADE VOLUME WITH GRAVITY MODEL
Author(s): Nevzat Balikçioğlu, Ahmet GülmezSubject(s): National Economy, Economic policy, International relations/trade
Published by: Kafkas Üniversitesi Sağlık, Kültür ve Spor Daire Başkanlığı Dijital Baskı Merkezi
Keywords: Gravity Model; Panel Regresyon; BRICS; Turkey;
Summary/Abstract: In this study, it is aimed to estimate the volume of foreign trade between 27 countries, which make up about three quarters of Turkey's foreign trade with using gravity model. Trade volume has been considered as dependent variable in the estimation models where the countries’ GDP, population amounts and the distance between the countries are handled between 1993-2016 with panel regression analysis. The aim of this study is to determine whether GSHY and distance have influence in Turkey's foreign trade with its 27 foreign trade partners. For this purpose, the Gravity Model was estimated by the panel regression method and while the effect of the GDP on foreign trade was found, a significant effect of the distance could not be determined. It was determined that the results obtained from the estimation were consistent with the coefficients of the GDP variable and were significant.
Journal: Kafkas Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi
- Issue Year: 10/2019
- Issue No: 20
- Page Range: 769-786
- Page Count: 18
- Language: Turkish