Statistical analysis model forecasts demographic development in the example of Olsztyn Cover Image

Analiza modeli statystycznych prognozy rozwoju demograficznego na przykładzie miasta Olsztyna
Statistical analysis model forecasts demographic development in the example of Olsztyn

Author(s): Marek Patrycjusz Ogryzek
Subject(s): Economy, Geography, Regional studies
Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Warmińsko-Mazurskiego w Olsztynie
Keywords: demography analyze;random factor;simulation;game theory;urban planning;GIS;

Summary/Abstract: This article contains research that forecasts the demographic development. The studies concerning demographic development were conducted in Olsztyn . the capital city of Warmia and Mazury district in Poland. The main purpose of this research is to use diagnosis concerning population growth to help in a decision making process for urban planning. The ability to forecast demographic growth is a significant information that should be one of the components of the Geographic Information System in the city. Forecasting is based on prediction of the intensity of changes while taking a number of variables into consideration. Developing statistical model is an expensive and time-consuming work. A simulator that was developed by the author allows its users to predict the size of future population. The stochastic model used for the simulation takes into account the random factor and decision-making process solution received by using mathematical equations from the game theory. The study includes the comparison of forecasted demographic growth from the Central Statistical Office [1997] and the authors. Demographic Simulator called .Maria. [2008] with the actual population size between 1997 and 2015.

  • Issue Year: 14/2015
  • Issue No: 4
  • Page Range: 65-73
  • Page Count: 9
  • Language: Polish