Тенденции рождаемости в России за последние четыре десятилетия: анализ с учетом вероятности рождения очередного ребенка в условных и реальных поколениях
Fertility Trends in Russia over the Past Four Decades: An Analysis Based On Period and Cohort Parity Progression Ratios
Subject(s): Social Sciences, Sociology
Published by: Институт за изследване на населението и човека - Българска академия на науките
Keywords: Fertility in Russia; parity progression ratios; results of pronatalist policy; fertility projections for Russia.
Summary/Abstract: The article presents the results of an analysis of fertility trends in Russia based on the most powerful statistical and demographic tool known to the international community as period and cohort age- and parity-specific fertility tables, constructed for calendar years in retrospective of four decades (1979-2017), and for generations of women born from 1955 to 1990. The results are intended to strengthen an objective, comprehensive approach to interpreting historical and recent fertility trends in in Russia, as well as to a balanced assessment of the foreseeable prospects for changes in period and cohort total fertility. The author critically assesses the demographic results of the pronatalist policy in Russia over the past decade and calls into question the overly optimistic prospects for further increase in level of fertility, widespread in the Russian political elite.
- Issue Year: 37/2019
- Issue No: 1
- Page Range: 209-243
- Page Count: 35
- Language: Russian