DEMAND FORECASTING AND MEASURING FORECAST ACCURACY IN A PHARMACY
DEMAND FORECASTING AND MEASURING FORECAST ACCURACY IN A PHARMACY

Summary/Abstract: This study examines the application of structured forecasting methods todetermine accurate demand forecasts using 12 monthly sales figures of a moderatebusy pharmacy. The date were analysed using some forecasting techniques; MovingAverage Method, Exponential Smoothing Method and Least Square Method. Also,the performances of the forecasting methods were evaluated using some accuracymeasures such as Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE) andMean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) to. The findings reveal that exponentialsmoothing method which results to least forecast error is the best method. Hence, thepharmacy is advised to adopt this best forecasting method to determine its monthlydemand forecasts. Pharmacy operators should maintain sound sales and inventoryrecords; it is easier if the system can be computerized but it could be expensive tooperate for small pharmacy outlet.

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