Detectarea fenomenelor tip „lebădă neagră”
Detection of „Black Swan” Phenomena
Author(s): Ivan Lucian, Alexandra IvanSubject(s): Politics / Political Sciences, Diplomatic history, Economic history, Political history, Social history, Recent History (1900 till today), Socio-Economic Research, Geopolitics
Published by: Centrul de Strategii Aplicate
Keywords: black swan; analysis; improbable phenomena; forecasting; extreme impact;
Summary/Abstract: In our society, characterized by dynamism and radical changes within short periods of time, are not taking into account these events very unlikely, but with strong effects (called”black swan” phenomena within specialty literature). In this context, is necessary that analytical methods to take into account not only economical elements, but also political, social, legislative and demographic factors. In this regard, applying innovative analytical techniques will allow detection of ”black swan” phenomena, with effects in anticipation of threats and risks at national security domain.
Journal: Diplomacy & Intelligence / Revistă de Științe Sociale, Diplomație și Studii de Securitate
- Issue Year: 2019
- Issue No: 12
- Page Range: 4-19
- Page Count: 16
- Language: Romanian