PROVJERA PRIMJENJIVOSTI PERRYJEVA MODELA "VJEROJATNIH GLASAČA" U PREDIKCIJI REZULTATA IZBORA ZA GRADSKU SKUPŠTINU ZAGREBA 2001. GODINE
TESTING THE APPLICABILITY OF PERRY'S MODEL OF "PROBABLE VOTERS" FOR PREDICTING THE ELECTION RESULTS FOR THE ZAGREB CITY ASSEMBLY IN 2001

Summary/Abstract: In the results of the validation analysis presented in the article the applicability of Perry's model of "probable voters" in Croatian electoral circumstances has been tested, as well as its possible influence on the predictive validity of pre-electoral research of public opinion in Croatia. Results of the comparative field research and telephone opinion polls carried out on occasion of the 2001 Zagreb City assembly elections were used in the analysis. In order to define the relative significance of a specific variable from Perry's model, as a possible predictor of electoral participation, the first level of analysis established a factor-structure and the reliability of included variables for determining the probability of electoral turn-out.

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