Kształtowanie oczekiwań inflacyjnych przez prognozy inflacji w świetle badań empirycznych
Shaping of Inflation Expectations Through Inflation Forecasts. The Results of Empirical Research

Summary/Abstract: The article focuses on aspects of modern monetary strategy: inflation expectations and inflation forecasts. Inflation forecasts' main function is shaping inflation expectations. The deeper the impact of a central bank on expectations, the easier its task of stabilization of inflation on the targeted level. The article presents the results of empirical research that verifies the hypothesis on existence of interdependences of inflation forecasts and in%ation expectations. The research covers two countries: Sweden and the Czech Republic. The research methodology includes quantitative methods: quantification of expectations (Carlson-Parkin method)and non-parametric statistics of interdependences. The research confirms the existence of statistically important interdependences of inflation forecasts and expectations in both countries. Their strength is remarkable for Sweden (c.a. 0.70)and much weaker for the Czech Republic (c.a. 3.0).

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