OCENA WYSTĘPOWANIA POLITYCZNEGO CYKLU BUDŻETOWEGO W POLSCE
ASSESSMENT OF THE POLITICAL BUDGET CYCLE IN POLAND

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of the article is to examine the existence and strength of the connection between the election cycle and the condition of revenues and expenditures in the public finance sector in Poland. The implementation of the adopted objective required the review of literature and the use of statistical analysis. Within the scope of the analysis the public finance sector in Poland was divided into three subsectors: central government, local government and social security funds. The occurrence of cyclicality has been verified based on the construction of econometric models with a periodic component representing various categories of public expenditure and tax revenues, and their evaluation. The analysis enabled a positive verification of the hypothesis that in Poland the occurrence of a political budget cycle that appears in “loose” fiscal policy prior to elections and restrictive policy right after elections can be observed.

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