MEASURING THE ACCURACY OF QUANTITATIVE PROGNOSTIC METHODS AND METHODS BASED ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS IN THE FIELD OF TOURISM Cover Image

MEASURING THE ACCURACY OF QUANTITATIVE PROGNOSTIC METHODS AND METHODS BASED ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS IN THE FIELD OF TOURISM
MEASURING THE ACCURACY OF QUANTITATIVE PROGNOSTIC METHODS AND METHODS BASED ON TECHNICAL INDICATORS IN THE FIELD OF TOURISM

Author(s): Andrea Kolkov√°
Subject(s): Social Sciences, Economy, Tourism
Published by: Univerzita J. Selyeho, Ekonomick√° fakulta
Keywords: forecasting; technical analysis; exponential smoothing; ARIMA;

Summary/Abstract: Forecasts in the business economy play a key role. An economically performing business must have an idea of the future development of its assets. Prediction is based on the use of quantitative and qualitative methods. This paper deals only with the use of quantitative methods, namely Exponential smoothing, ARIMA. In business practice, however, there is often a need for simplicity of prognostic models, which ARIMA models often do not respond to. Therefore, a calculation experiment and the use of simple indicators of technical analysis to predict the occupancy of accommodation facilities in the Czech Republic were made in this appendix. The aim of the paper is to measure the accuracy of these models compared to exponential smoothing and ARIMA based on the ex post forecasting accuracy method.

  • Issue Year: 7/2018
  • Issue No: 1
  • Page Range: 58-69
  • Page Count: 12
  • Language: English