MELODII ADAPTATE ERETIC LA SIRIA
A HERETIC’S UP-DATED MUSINGS ON SYRIA

Summary/Abstract: The intense fighting since early 2012 coupled with the vastly improved manipulation of the Jihadists by Iranian intelligence have already enabled the Assad administration to take control over the war in Syria. This means that Damascus once again effectively controls the strategic narrative – but not each region, let alone each incident.Hence, barring a major foreign intervention the Assad administration should be considered over the hump, even though the predominantly Sunni insurrection could continue for months or even years to come.Presently, the primary explosive threat of the Syrian conflict is the growing dichotomy between the situation inside Syria and the relentless efforts by a myriad of external forces to exploit the conflict in pursuit of their regional and global interests.The traditional key to ruling Syria is an alliance between the security and economic elites. Assad’s Damascus has effectively restored the alliance between these foci of power. The Syrian armed forces have consolidated control over the economic-strategic Damascus–Aleppo belt. Moreover, the growing threat of Jihadist terrorism has left the urban-economic elite little choice but to cast their lot with the Assad administration. The only impediment is the lingering insurrection in Homs and Hama which the Annan cease-fire might help contain. The growing threats of foreign intervention is pushing Damascus to complete the pacification – albeit while markedly raising the level of violence and the ruthlessness of the crackdown. The Assad administration is winning at the national strategic level and there is nothing any opposition entity can presently do to reverse this trend.Consequently, the traditional Sunni population – their tribal and extended family leaders – is gravitating toward the Syrian Liberation Army – a loose coalition of like-minded localized forces and mini-groups. Hence, Damascus cannot ignore the SLA’s ascent because the government will ultimately have to demonstrate the cessation of armed opposition and establish control over the interior. It would be far more logical and expedient for the Assad administration to do so in the context of negotiations and power-sharing, than achieve this through bloody, prolonged and exhausting mop-up operations all over the Syrian vast interior. Meanwhile, for as long as the Assad administration refuses to negotiate – it is imperative for the West to assist and build the SLA as the genuine grassroots force capable to exerting real pressure on Damascus and compel viable negotiations to end the conflict.Neither the complexities of the inner-Syrian struggle and the awakening of the deep interior, nor the advocated foreign intervention, should distract from the overall historic context of the crisis. At the core is the confrontation between resurgent Sunni Arab Islamism and the region’s aspirant non-Arab Islamist hegemonic powers – Mahdivist Iran and neo-Ottoman Turkey. The Fertile Crescent of Minorities – from east to west counter-clockwise: Ahwazi Arabs, Kurds, Allawites, Druze, Maronites, Jews and Circassians – serves as the buffer preventing cataclysmic eruption. Only a viable Fertile Crescent of Minorities – of which the Allawites and Druze of Syria are presently the most beleaguered elements – can prevent the simmering Arab world from conjoining with the Islamist ascent of Turkey and Iran and cementing an explosive critical mass.

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