The Predictions on the Future of Labour are not Grounded; Some Arguments for a Bayesian Approach
The Predictions on the Future of Labour are not Grounded; Some Arguments for a Bayesian Approach

Summary/Abstract: Expectations on predicting the future of work are not substantiated, and can only control some of the variables that define its character. The following variables could help to shape a Bayesian methodological framework of the future of labour and could interfere in modelling labour status: 1) The meaning of labour depends on the context of significance specific to each historical period; 2) The fate of labour is dependent on the ontological status of the utensil; 3) The status of labour is defined to a significant extent in the self-fulfilling / defeating prophecy horizon; 4) The normative perspective: the future of labour will be as we want it to be; but we cannot predict the evolution of our desires; 5) The present confirms to a small extent the expectations of the past; 6) Predictability in the field of labour is not protected by black swans: the evolution of artificial intelligence outlines the most important dimension of the extremistan; 7) If the decision belongs to the human, there will be at least some areas where human labour will be preferred; 8) The increase in the number of jobs and the decrease in their quality cannot be excluded; 9) the progress can also lead to the increase of the number of jobs; 10) The diminishing of social control over labour will persist. The arguments in favour of labour show that it will still exist; but we cannot be sure who and how it will be, or what status it will have.

• Details
• Contents