Kosovo and the Cyprus Scenario – a Nightmare and a Missed Opportunity
Kosovo and the Cyprus Scenario – a Nightmare and a Missed Opportunity

Summary/Abstract: Like Cyprus, Kosovo is today divided. The authority of both the Provisional Institutions of Self-Government and UNMIK ends at the Ibar River. The Serb population north of this line is economically and mentally oriented towards Belgrade. Indeed, in Kosovo, a “Cyprus scenario” might become reality once the Albanians, because of their frustration of not being granted independence, unilaterally declare an independent Kosovo. As a result, North Mitrovica could become the capital of an unstable separatist entity, without international recognition, being highly dependent on the Serbian “mother nation”. Thus, a “Cyprus situation” is pending over Kosovo like a nightmare. The author looks at the Cyprus case from yet another perspective: The so-called Annan-Plan for a solution of the Cyprus question in 2004 failed only in the last instance before its implementation. By and large, in Cyprus, a “win-win-situation” had emerged. The European perspective given to the Turkish Cypriots and to Turkey had opened a real “window of opportunity”. None of these advantageous circumstances prevail in Kosovo. There, the (Ahtisaari-) Plan on the table is completely rejected by one side. Its provisions are controversial in terms of international law, highly complex, asymmetric and only a transitional resolution for state sovereignty. Despite the eventual failure of the Annan-Plan, in Cyprus a whole set of preconditions for successfully solving a protracted inter-ethnic conflict was present. Such circumstances are lacking in Kosovo.

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