Makroekonomiczne uwarunkowania koniunktury na Giełdzie Papierów Wartościowych w Warszawie w latach 1991-1994
Macroeconomic conditioning of the economic situation on the Warsaw Stock Exchange in the years 1991-1994

Summary/Abstract: Violent turbulence was being observed on the share market since the Warsaw Stock Exchange has been started and throughout the next few years. It is possible to seek the causes of large variabilities of a share index in macroeconomic surroundings. Its components being among others: a pace of the increase in GDP, changes of the inflation rate, but also elements shaping the determined economic climate, like the political situation. Although, when the capital market is still immature only some of the above-mentioned determinants could play a major role. Moreover, one should notice, that the stock market crash of 1994, which was the consequence of a "speculative bubble" produced earlier, disturbed the correlation between macroeconomic variables and evaluation of stock prices. It is possible to say that the causes of a stock market crash lied in the stock exchange itself as the scope of its actions was very small. Bending of the stock prices certainly would have been smaller if in 1993 a sizeable group of big new companies was floated on the stock market. It would have created the effect of dividing the demand and turnovers into the substantial amount of advantages, and in consequence, would have limited the strong appreciation not correlated with the fundamental analysis of share prices.

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