Analysis of the macroeconomic effects of EU transfers by the model ‘ECO-TREND’
Analysis of the macroeconomic effects of EU transfers by the model ‘ECO-TREND’
Author(s): Tibor Keresztély, Ilona Cserháti, Zsuzsa VargaSubject(s): National Economy, Supranational / Global Economy, EU-Accession / EU-DEvelopment, Socio-Economic Research
Published by: Akadémiai Kiadó
Keywords: EU transfers; macroeconomic modelling; scenario analysis; forecasting; long-term model;
Summary/Abstract: EU transfers play a significant role in the long-term convergence of the Hungarian economy. The paper presents several channels through which transfers can be effective. First the modelling experiences and other techniques are summarised which can be useful to estimate the impact of EU transfers.Next we present the so-called ECO-TREND model developed in the ECOSTAT, suitable for both mid- and long-term forecasts and scenario analysis. The assessment of the model parameters has been based on standard statistical methods and on experts’ estimations. Such a model can be a useful decision-making tool for the economic policy. Finally, forecasts are presented for the Hungarian economy until 2020, which is completed by the analysis of three different macroeconomic scenarios based on different subsidy-absorption rates and different structures of expenditure.
Journal: Society and Economy. In Central and Eastern Europe ǀ Journal of the Corvinus University of Budapest
- Issue Year: 30/2008
- Issue No: 2
- Page Range: 209-225
- Page Count: 17
- Language: English