Kurcząca się podaż ropy naftowej jako zagrożenie dla ładu światowego
Declining supply of oil as a challenge for the world order

Summary/Abstract: The article discusses the recent trends on the world’s oil market and the most important consequences connected with the future oil scarcity. There is a danger that the world will be left some day without oil and with no other viable energy resources. According to the estimates of the International Energy Agency the so called “peak oil” may occur in 2020 and since that time the competition for oil and other raw materials will increase. However it is not peak oil production but peak oil exports the main problem. The fact is that since 2006 the global net exports of oil have already begun to decline at the rate of about 2,5% yearly. & ere is a need to start the explorations of the new oil fields in order to meet the rising demand for oil. Higher oil prices will create more opportunities to increase production of oil from the difficult oil fields such as those in the Arctic, Amazonia and Alaska. O n the other hand as world oil security measured in terms of the oil supply available on the global market deteriorates, individual oil producing countries may limit or even ban oil exports. Some countries will be tempted to start the exploitation of some oil fields, whose international status is still unregulated or nor precisely delimited as the recent conflict between the United Kingdom and Argentina confirms. All countries, both oil exporting and importing should not compete over oil resources with the help of military force, which would lead to the strategic resource wars. Rather the new mechanism for peaceful coordinating various initiatives focused on delivering energy security is needed. The problem is that the current global system is ill-designed for such a world without conflict driven by competition over resources and humans are still inherently a warlike species accustomed to resolve their conflicts with the use of military force.

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