Improvement of forecasting social and economic development: experience of the Republic of Belarus Cover Image

Совершенствование прогнозирования социально-экономического развития: опыт Республики Беларусь
Improvement of forecasting social and economic development: experience of the Republic of Belarus

Author(s): Marina Korsak, Andrey Surdo
Subject(s): National Economy, Regional Geography, Methodology and research technology, Policy, planning, forecast and speculation, Economic development
Published by: Переяслав-Хмельницький державний педагогічний університет імені Григорія Сковороди
Keywords: social and economic development; long-term forecasting; forecasting methods; extrapolation; expert assessment; foresight; expert panels; The Delphi method; SWOT-analysis; brainstorm; scripting; techno

Summary/Abstract: This article examines the current state, problems and methods of forecasting social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus, and proposes primary directions of its improvement, which is the subject of the research. With considering of a new stage of economic development of the Republic of Belarus, which based on the implementation of innovation policy crucial relevance in the Republic of Belarus attain researches in accounting processes of creation, implantation and applying of innovations in long-term forecasting social and economic development. The aim of the article is to elaborate main research areas and applied projects on improving long-term forecasting social and economic development. We used following research methods to reach this aim: abstract-logical, analysis and synthesis, induction and deduction, comparison, rationale, generalization, appraising, systemic and complex approaches. Results: The necessity of implementation of a new instrument for the long-term forecasting social and economic development was substantiated. This instrument is Foresight, which involves the increase of innovative activity and advancing growth of competitiveness of Belarusian enterprises. The Foresight methodology includes dozens of traditional and new expert methods. At the same time this methods continue their improvement working off processes and procedures, which provides the increase of validity of foresight in scientific, technical, social, and economic development. In order to account all possible options it is commonly involved a considerable number of experts. It is usually applied a combination of different methods in every Foresight project including the Delphi method, SWOT-analysis, brainstorm, scripting, technological road maps, creating expert panels and relevance trees. At the same time, there is no single correct method in Foresight because it must be always adapted to certain conditions in which it is carried out. There was found the direct dependence between success of the Foresight project and the complexity of applying mentioned methods of forecasting while the system of combining their usage is constantly becoming more complicated. The area of usage results of the research: is the improvement in system of long-term forecasting on the levels of country, economic complexes, economic sectors and enterprises of the Republic of Belarus. Conclusions: The usage of Foresight in forecasting social and economic development of the Republic of Belarus will improve the accounting innovative processes, identify the most acute long-term problems, assess long-term prospects and possible options for social and economic development, provide expert discussion (scientists, businessmen, heads of enterprises, officials) about acceptable directions in the further development of Belarus and create measures for movement in the chosen direction, which is acceptable for all parties

  • Issue Year: 1/2017
  • Issue No: 33
  • Page Range: 93-101
  • Page Count: 9
  • Language: Russian