Fractionalization of Party System and Government Stability Cover Image

Фракционализација партијског система и стабилност владе
Fractionalization of Party System and Government Stability

Author(s): Marko Pejković
Subject(s): Government/Political systems, Methodology and research technology
Published by: Институт за политичке студије
Keywords: party system; government stability; number of parties; government duration; fractionalization index; correlation; Poisson regression;

Summary/Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to establish whether there exists and to what degree, statistical correlation between two important political phenomena: fractionalization (fragmentation) of party system and government stability (cabinet duration), in political system of Serbia. If the eventual correlation is strong, author holds that it would certainly help us not just in sense of more sophisticated inference in political science regarding (in)stability of political institutions, but it does so also in manner of providing us with means to raise political science in Serbia to upper level, which includes not just description and explanation, but relatively reliable prognostic methods through utilization of regression analysis as well. But firstly, the author deals with common formula indexes concerning fractionalization and choose one of them and no matter the fact that choice itself doesn’t affect neither the correlation coefficient nor regression, he is induced to this step because there is still no consensus about due index among scientists and because any formula differently responds to our intuitive comprehension of what the relevant number of parties should be, bearing in mind that between party power and index value, different deviations emerge using different formulas.

  • Issue Year: 2011
  • Issue No: 2
  • Page Range: 41-56
  • Page Count: 16
  • Language: Serbian