ARBORELE DE PERTINENŢĂ–METODĂ CALITATIV-CANTITATIVĂ DE PROGNOZĂ
RELEVANCE TREE – QUALITATIVE– QUANTITATIVE FORECASTING METHOD

Summary/Abstract: Most of the intelligence practitioners share the same experience when it comes to forecast and prognosis: despite on paper theoretical methods seem to offer great results, when put into practice, the expectations are rarely met. Given the fact that quantitative methods do not take into account the subjective nature of phenomena and that the qualitative often include cognitive biases, we took on a different approach. The case study I will further present is based on the application of the relevance tree, a graph-like method used by both sociology and cybernetics, as a complex combination between the qualitative and the quantitative methodologies

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