ОСОБЛИВОСТІ ЗАСТОСУВАННЯ ІМОВІРНІСНОГО ПІДХОДУ В ДОСЛІДЖЕННЯХ ПОТЕНЦІАЛУ КРИЗОГЕННОСТІ АМЕРИКАНСЬКО-ЄВРОПЕЙСЬКИХ ВІДНОСИН В УМОВАХ РОЗШИРЕННЯ ЄС
PECULIARITIES OF THE PROBABILISTIC APPROACH APPLICATION TO THE STUDY OF THE US-EUROPEAN RELATIONS CRISIS RISKINESS IN THE CONTEXT OF THE EU ENLARGEMEN

Summary/Abstract: In the twenty-first century, the objective growth of the global mutual interdependence of countries on both sides of the ocean caused the structural complexity of international relations between them, bringing forward new driving forces of development of events and transforming their nature and main features. After appearance of new actors on the international scene and their entry into the EU and NATO, these organizations could hardly take a common stand that would provide a tool for effective fight against new threats increasing the risk of foreign policy disasters. The paper considers a probabilistic approach to the evaluation of possible crisis situations in international relations, which is based on the method of expert estimates and allows expressing quantitatively the severity of the risks involved by their mathematical modeling. The approach allows us to solve the problem of quantitative measurements in crisis assessment.

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