Yapısal Kırılmaları Göz Önüne Alarak Türk İmalat Sanayi Ekonomik Değişkenleri Arasında Uzun Dönem İlişkilerin Araştırılması
Research into the Long-Run Relationship among the Economic Variables of Turkish Manufacturing Industry Considering the Structural Breaks

Summary/Abstract: As known Manufacturing Industry is one of the main sources of the Turkish economy. Moreover, Manufacturing Industry, with its high production capacity and with its volume of foreign trade, constitutes a driving force for growth and development. Of the country for this reason, in this study, the relationships among the economic variables related with the Turkish Manufacturing Industry are investigated by using time series analysis techniques. The study puts forward a distinctive and original study due to its investigation of the trade deficit related to the Manufacturing Industry and its identification of long term relationships among the selected economic variables. In this study, co- integration analysis is applied among production, import and export series of Turkish Manufacturing Industry for the period of January 1989- March 2013. Taking into consideration the economic crises that happened in this time period, related structural break tests are employed as well. As a result of the co-integration analyses used between Manufacturing Industry production and imports as well as exports of this industry branch, no relationship is found. On the other hand, a long term relationship is identified between Manufacturing Industry Imports and Exports. When the results of the method of Dynamic Ordinary Least Square, which can be applied to co-integrated series and which often used by the literature for the decision concerning sustainability, are examined and the Manufacturing Industry foreign trade deficit is found to be sustainable.

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