Белорусско-российские отношения с перспективы Минска: формальный союз и фактическая дезинтеграция
Belarusian-Russian relations from the perspective of Minsk: Formal union and actual disintegration

Summary/Abstract: This article is devoted to the analysis of integration and disintegration processes that occurred between Belarus and Russia after the signing the 1996 Treaty establishing the Community of the two countries. Particular attention is paid tothe state of relations in 2014-2015 – after the beginning of the military conflict in Ukraine and the economic crisis in Belarus and Russia. The author points to severaltrends on three levels of cooperation. Politically, the countries disintegrate, asthey become aware of the difference between their interests in bilateral relationsand on the international arena. Economic cooperation remains at a high level, butdeep integration is impossible, as the economic crisis forced Belarus to seek opportunitiesfor economic development elsewhere. Military cooperation, in turn,reaches the limit of integration that Minsk is willing to accept: its manifestationwas a refusal of Belarus to place a Russian military base on its territory. Moreover, Belarus has taken several steps to reduce its military dependence on Russia. Thus,the dynamics of the Belarusian-Russian relations allows to say that in the near future the country will continue formal integration, while in practice that means maintaining the “status quo” or even further disintegration.

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